The Forecast Book
A call is recorded only when it is made, with the date it was made. Each call states a clearly defined event, a probability, the evidence that would change the view and the date it will be resolved. Revisions are added beside the original; nothing is overwritten.
No calls recorded yet
The first calls will be entered on the day they are made. Each will name a clearly defined event, a probability, the evidence that would change the view and the date it resolves. Revisions will sit beside the original call, so the record shows how the judgement moved.
Until then, every analysis on the site ends with a section on what would change its judgement.
How calls are scored
Each resolved call gets a Brier score: the squared difference between the stated probability and the outcome (1 if it happened, 0 if not). A perfect call scores 0; a coin-flip scores 0.25 on average. The running average across all resolved calls is the headline measure of judgement.