Budget X-Ray: halfway through 2026-27
Six months into the financial year, here is how far the Centre has got through its Budget: what it has collected, what it has spent and how much it has already borrowed, set against the same point last year. Figures to September 2026, published by the Controller General of Accounts on 30 October 2026.
What the first half shows
The deficit is ahead of schedule. The Centre had used 42.1% of its full-year deficit allowance by September, against 36.5% at the same point of 2025-26. Spending (47.7% of budget) is running faster than receipts (50.3%) relative to last year.
Receipts look on track only because of the RBI. Non-tax revenue is already at 72% of its budget, thanks to the central bank's record surplus transfer in May. Only ₹1.85 lakh crore of non-tax revenue remains to be collected in the second half. Net tax revenue is at 44.5%, so the second half has to bring in 25% more tax than the first.
Interest is the largest single claim. Interest payments took 37% of the Centre's revenue receipts in the first half.
Pace: share of the full-year budget used after 6 months
The fiscal deficit, month by month
Line by line, ₹ crore
| Item | Budget 2026-27 | Actual Apr–Sep | % of budget | Left for Oct–Mar | Second half vs first |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total receipts (non-debt) | 36,51,547 | 18,35,422 | 50.3% | 18,16,125 | −1.1% |
| Net tax revenue (Centre)Gross tax collections grew about 6% year on year. Excise duty fell about 22% after the cut on petrol and diesel; income tax grew about 7%. | 28,66,922 | 12,76,088 | 44.5% | 15,90,834 | +24.7% |
| Non-tax revenueFront-loaded by the RBI's record ₹2.87 lakh crore surplus transfer in May. | 6,66,228 | 4,80,732 | 72.2% | 1,85,496 | −61.4% |
| Non-debt capital receiptsMainly loan recoveries and disinvestment. | 1,18,397 | 78,602 | 66.4% | 39,795 | −49.4% |
| Total expenditure | 53,47,315 | 25,49,835 | 47.7% | 27,97,480 | +9.7% |
| Revenue expenditureUp about 10% year on year, led by subsidies. | 41,25,494 | 18,95,288 | 45.9% | 22,30,206 | +17.7% |
| Interest payments | 14,03,972 | 6,46,010 | 46.0% | 7,57,962 | +17.3% |
| Capital expenditureUp about 13% year on year in the first half, but September alone fell about 3%. | 12,21,821 | 6,54,547 | 53.6% | 5,67,274 | −13.3% |
| Fiscal deficitTotal expenditure minus non-debt receipts. | 16,95,768 | 7,14,413 | 42.1% | 9,81,355 | +37.4% |
Where the first half's spending went
- Major subsidies
- ₹2,22,905 crore. Urea at about 73% and nutrient-based fertiliser subsidy at about 62% of their budgets by September.
- Tax devolution to states
- ₹6,99,409 crore. ₹67,658 crore more than in April–September 2025.
Year-end calculator
How big does October–March have to be? Set the second half relative to the first and see where the year lands.
- Full-year net tax = April–September actual × (1 + your second-half change).
- Full-year spending is built the same way. Non-tax and non-debt capital receipts for October–March are entered directly, because the RBI transfer makes the first half a poor guide.
- The deficit is total spending minus all non-debt receipts. The share of GDP uses your GDP figure; the Budget assumed ₹393.00 lakh crore. A weaker nominal GDP raises the ratio even if the rupee deficit is unchanged.
- Monthly accounts are provisional and the year-end figure is often revised. This is a guide to the arithmetic, not a forecast.
Sources
- Ministry of Finance, Monthly review of accounts up to September 2026 (PIB, 30 Oct 2026)
- Budget at a Glance 2026-27, Department of Expenditure
- PRS Legislative Research, Union Budget 2026-27 Analysis
- RBI Bulletin, Central government finances, April–May 2026
- Business Standard, H1 FY27 fiscal deficit at 42% of target (30 Oct 2026)
- Monthly fiscal deficit releases (CGA via IANS, PTI, Deccan Herald), Apr–Aug 2026