Trade & external sector
Trade deals, tariffs, the current account and capital flows: how India earns, spends and finances its foreign exchange.
Trade
Three customs questions decide whether a trade deal’s tariff cut is real
A trade deal cuts duty on a list of tariff lines. Whether a shipment pays the lower rate depends on what customs says it is, where it was made and what it is worth. The Scotch whisky dispute shows all three tests at work.
Trade
India’s Russia trade target should be judged by repeat export orders
Raising bilateral trade from roughly $60 billion to $100 billion can be done in several ways. India gains more if its exporters develop durable non-energy sales.
Trade
India’s small current-account deficit masks a larger shift in financing
Services and transfers absorbed most of the deterioration in goods trade. A swing in portfolio flows and reserve transactions tells a different story about financing.
Trade
The UK–India trade deal’s real test is whether firms can use it
The UK–India trade agreement opens up real export opportunities. India should judge it by which firms claim the preference, win additional orders and expand production.
Trade
India’s current-account surplus conceals a widening non-oil trade gap
Services and transfers kept the March-quarter current account in surplus. The goods data point to a larger non-oil deficit and a separate financing challenge.
Trade
India’s higher gold duty faces a test in tonnes, premiums and recycling
The move from 6% to 15% can reduce foreign-exchange demand if it lowers net imports. The effects on local prices, recycled supply and jewellery exporters will determine how much it achieves.
Trade
The US tariff reset changes India’s bargaining position
The new 10% US surcharge can lower the duty on some Indian goods while removing the advantage India expected from a country-specific deal. Export orders depend on both effects.
Trade
India’s EU trade deal will pay off if exporters can meet Europe’s rules
The agreement offers substantial tariff relief once it takes effect. India’s gains will depend on standards, carbon measurement and whether smaller firms can use the new access.
Trade
The apple quota is the real test of India’s New Zealand trade deal
India’s deal with New Zealand offers a narrow opening for fresh apples. The price floor, seasonal window and allocation of import rights will decide who benefits.
Trade
A Fed cut cannot do the work of financing India’s external deficit
The Federal Reserve eased and the rupee still set a record low. India’s balance of payments shows why a smaller current-account deficit can coexist with more pressure on the currency.
Trade
India’s export rescue should buy firms time to find new buyers
October’s record goods deficit and the US tariff shock call for different responses. Export credit can keep viable suppliers in business while they diversify, provided India tests whether the support actually preserves orders and jobs.
Trade
Sluggish exports are not a worry for India
India’s exports have stalled, but a weaker rupee and a small export share of GDP mean the slump matters less than it looks.