Where India is exposed
Which countries India depends on for the things it cannot easily make at home, how concentrated that supply is, and what a disruption would cost. Oil, fertiliser and the electronics and clean-energy goods that come mostly from China.
Crude oil: where India's barrels came from, 2024-25
Russia's share rose from almost nothing before 2022. It reached about half of India's crude intake in some months of 2026, when Gulf supplies were disrupted. The concentration index for named suppliers (sum of squared shares) is about 1,971; above 2,500 is conventionally read as highly concentrated.
What if a supplier stops?
- Barrels to replace = total imports × supplier's share × share lost.
- Extra bill = barrels to replace × extra cost per barrel × 365 days. It assumes replacement barrels can be found at that premium; in a real disruption they might not be, and the global price would also move.
- Use the Shock Lab to see what a change in the Brent price itself does to the import bill and the pump.
DAP fertiliser: how fast China's share fell
More than half of India's DAP use is met by finished imports; much of the rest is made at home from imported rock phosphate and phosphoric acid. As Chinese supply dried up, India signed long-term supply deals with Saudi Arabia and Morocco in July 2025.
Products where China supplies most of what India imports
Shares are China's portion of India's total imports of each product, as reported by the Global Trade Research Initiative in August 2025. A high import share is not the same as dependence: for some products imports are a small part of what India uses. The risk is greatest where China's share is high and domestic production is thin, as with solar cells, lithium-ion cells and antibiotic ingredients.
Sources
- ICRA, Indian Oil and Gas Industry, June 2025 (supplier shares and Strait of Hormuz exposure)
- Business Standard, oil imports coverage (2024 volume, Kpler)
- EBC Financial Group, Russia's share of India's crude in the March 2026 Hormuz disruption
- Government data via PTI/Outlook Business, DAP imports from China (Mar 2025)
- Rural Voice, DAP import prices and sourcing (2025)
- Argus, India signs phosphate agreements with Saudi Arabia and Morocco (Jul 2025)
- GTRI, via Business Standard (20 Aug 2025)
- GTRI, India's trade deficit with China (via Business Standard, 19 Dec 2025)