The rupee, the rate gap and India’s external accounts

Higher means a weaker rupee. Daily ECB reference rates. The dollar index overlay (right axis) is the Federal Reserve’s broad trade-weighted index: when both rise together, the rupee is falling because the dollar is strong everywhere, not because of anything specific to India.

Each currency’s value in dollars, rebased to 100 at the start of the period, so a line above 100 means the currency gained on the dollar. The rupee is drawn in bold. Bars show the total change over the period. Click a name in the legend to hide or show it.

The rate gap

India’s points are the RBI repo rate (5.50%, since 7 oct 2026) and the 10-year government bond yield (7.20%, close, 11 nov 2026). A narrower gap with US yields makes Indian bonds less attractive to foreign investors and puts pressure on the rupee; a wider gap pulls money in.

Peers: China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey, with the US, Germany, Japan and the UK for scale. IMF years are calendar years except India’s, which are financial years (2025 means 2025-26).

Sources

• Exchange rates: European Central Bank reference rates via Frankfurter. Cross rates computed from rates against the dollar.
• US Treasury yields, Fed funds rate, 10-year breakeven inflation and the broad dollar index: Federal Reserve Board and US Treasury, via FRED.
• India’s repo rate and 10-year yield: RBI and market closes, as recorded on the repo and 10-year yield pages.
• Current account and government debt: IMF World Economic Outlook DataMapper. Reserves, remittances, FDI, exports and imports: World Bank World Development Indicators.

All of it is downloadable from the data API at /api/rupee.json, or chart any series in the workbench.